I'm cautiously optimistic, and I don't know why. I'm excited about the Wii. It has a great launch lineup, perhaps the best of any Nintendo console to date. It has an incredible flagship game right off the bat: The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess. I even have a strong feeling about the marketing and advertising efforts of Nintendo -- finally the company seems to have found a stable and solid image and direction. In fact, I can't recall anticipating a game system this much. Wait...that's a lie.

I have been this excited before. It was exactly five years ago, when the GameCube (GCN) was nearing launch. I felt the same way then about most of these issues and believed Nintendo was back on the fast track to success. I was wrong. Very wrong. All my instincts tell me that the Wii is different and will turn the tides for Nintendo, but this feeling of déjà vu is unnerving. Given that all my instincts have a history of being wrong, am I just setting myself up for disappointment? Is hype getting the best of me? I want to be optimistic, but my common sense is screaming caution.

Rewind time. It is now November of 2001. Here's what the me of five years ago would have said about the impending GameCube launch, had I been writing for N-Sider at the time.



Save two or three major releases, the Nintendo 64 has been dead for roughly nine months now. The PS2 has been on shelves for a year and, despite some initial shipment problems, its sales have been solid. The Xbox is launching on November 15, three days before the Cube.

While the Nintendo 64 was not a failure (33 million sold worldwide), its sales paled in comparison to Sony's PlayStation, which sold three times as many units, as well as its own predecessor, the Super Nintendo, which outsold it by approximately 16 million units throughout its respective lifecycle. The N64 started out strong, but eventually evolved into a console where Nintendo franchises sold like crazy, but third party sales were, more often than not, disappointing. Though it appears that Nintendo has recognized the mistakes of the past five years and is working hard to regain the top spot this time around. The company has finally shed cartridges in favor of a proprietary 8cm optical disc format, which offer up to 1.5 GB of space (much more than the 64 MB maximum of N64 cartridges). Unlike the N64, the GCN is a developer friendly piece of hardware. It also packs some power. It's more powerful than the PS2 and comparable to the Xbox.

The company is also reaching out to third parties. The launch lineup, while lacking a true Mario game, is solid and perhaps the best in the company's history. The GCN will hit shelves with 12 titles available, including a number of top franchises from Nintendo and third parties. Wave Race: Blue Storm, Luigi's Mansion, Star Wars Rogue Leader, Super Monkey Ball, Crazy Taxi, Madden 2002, and Tony Hawk Pro Skater 3 are just a few of the games available immediately upon launch. However, let's not forget the December 3rd release of flagship title, Super Smash Bros. Melee, and Pikmin, a unique new game from Nintendo EAD. This is, again, a great lineup.

From what I can see, Nintendo has adopted a fresh outlook on the industry. Unlike the N64, it appears that the GCN will be host to many third party games. Yes, the system is launching in purple, but so did the Game Boy Color (GBC). Nintendo is offering a black option at launch as well, so it's a moot point, really. I am a bit disappointed in the lack of initial online support, but Nintendo has included a port for a modem! Online isn't going to be that big of a deal for a few years anyway. The same goes for DVD playback -- it's not a must have feature. I'm not entirely thrilled with Nintendo's initial advertising efforts, but they seem mainstream enough. I just hope they advertise more.

The controller is also one of the most comfortable and unique controllers I've ever seen. It has several innovative features not seen on the Xbox or PS2, like the shoulder triggers' extra digital click and a completely unique face-button (ABXY) layout. On top of it all, the console is only $200 -- $100 cheaper than any of its competitors.

With a sturdy launch lineup, innovative games like Pikmin, firm third party support, and an affordable price tag, the GameCube may turn things around for Nintendo. At the very least, it will be a console remembered for its uniqueness.

Fast-forward back to the world of today. It's November 2006 again -- less than one week before the Wii launches in North America. The GameCube is not remembered for its uniqueness. In fact, it's been almost entirely forgotten by a large portion of the gaming community. As it turns out, a low selling price did not bring with it increased demand, nor did Nintendo's claims of the Cube being in its own market stop the Xbox and PS2 from eating away at what was left of Nintendo's market share. With that in mind, here's what I think about the impending Wii launch.



Save two or three major releases, the GameCube has been dead for roughly 10 months now. The Xbox 360 has been on shelves for a year and, despite some initial shipment problems, its sales have been solid. The PlayStation 3 is launching on November 17, two days before the Wii.

While the GameCube was not a failure (21 million sold worldwide), its sales paled in comparison to Sony's PlayStation, which sold five times as many units, as well as its own predecessor, the Nintendo 64, which outsold it by approximately 12 million units throughout its respective lifecycle. The GCN started out strong, but eventually evolved into a console where Nintendo franchises sold fairly well, but third party sales were, more often than not, disappointing. Though, it appears that Nintendo has recognized the mistakes of the past ten years and is working hard to regain the top spot this time around. The company has finally shed 8cm optical discs in favor of 12cm optical discs, which offer up to 8.5 GB of space (much more than the 1.5 GB maximum of GCN discs). Like the GCN, the Wii is a developer friendly piece of hardware. However, it is also a relatively weak machine, in comparison to the competition. It's roughly twice as powerful as the GameCube, but far far weaker than the PS3 and Xbox 360.

The company is also reaching out to third parties. The launch lineup, while lacking a true Mario game, is solid and perhaps the best in the company's history. The Wii will hit shelves with 26 titles available right away (with many more coming in the "launch window"), including a number of top franchises from Nintendo and third parties. Excite Truck, Pokémon Battle Revolution, Red Steel, Super Monkey Ball: Banana Blitz, Elebits, Rayman Raving Rabbids, Madden 2007, Trauma Center: Second Opinion, and Splinter Cell are just a few of the games available immediately at launch. However, let's not forget the long awaited flagship title Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess, which is sure to move units, and Wii Sports, a unique new game from Nintendo EAD (Wii Sports will be bundled with the console). This is, again, a great lineup.

From what I can see, Nintendo has adopted a fresh outlook on the industry. Unlike the GCN, it appears that the Wii might be friendlier to third party games. Yes, the system is only launching in white, but it's a hot color right now. I'm sure Nintendo will offer other color options in the future, so any problem there is moot. I am very excited that the system is built around broadband online support, but a bit bummed that no launch games will have online multiplayer modes. The lack of HD support is somewhat disappointing as well, but Nintendo has made it clear that it isn't attacking the hardcore tech crowd. HD isn't going to be that big of a deal for a few years anyway. The same goes for DVD, Blu-ray, or HD DVD playback -- they aren't must have features. I've yet to see many Wii advertisements, which makes me wonder about Nintendo's ability to reach a new market with this machine. Historically, advertising hasn't been one of Nintendo of America's strong points. Sadly, it feels like they've given up altogether.

The Wii Remote is one of the most comfortable, and by far the most unique, controller I've ever seen. It's innovative and differentiating features are far too plentiful to list. Nintendo has really put itself on the line for this one. On top of it all, the console is only $250 -- $150 cheaper than the 360 and $350 cheaper than the PS3.

With an incredible launch lineup, innovative games like Wii Sports, firm third party support, and an affordable price tag, the Wii may turn things around for Nintendo. At the very least, it will be a console remembered for its uniqueness.

Or will it meet the same fate as the GameCube?

I feel as though I'm experiencing déjà vu. Perhaps it's all in my mind or simply a product of the un-clever way I mimicked the two bodies of text, but from one situation to the next, far too much of this feels fixed.

I am acutely aware of the holes in my logic. The Wii and GameCube are different in as many ways, if not more, than the similarities of their release. I know that it is also the 1-2 years that follow, and the games/decisions made over that time which determine the overall success of a game console. Nevertheless, the Wii is, at best, in a slightly better position than the GCN was during its launch period. At worst, it's treading into very dangerous waters, becoming the first Nintendo console to launch severely underpowered, when compared against both of its major rivals. There are some very positive aspects of the Wii, but Nintendo is taking some large risks.

Contrary to what some may say, I believe the success of the DS guarantees to Wii as much as the success of the GBA guaranteed to GCN: absolutely nothing. The handheld and console markets are two completely different entities. If there is a correlation between the two, it has failed to show its face on any sales figures for the past five years. And trust me, with GCN/GBA connectivity and the GB Player, Nintendo has dedicated much time to hunting down such a correlation. It's just not there. Whether or not the Wii succeeds or fails, it will do so entirely on its own.

As an active gamer of 15+ years, it's impossible for me to fully understand the market Nintendo is targeting with Wii. I am able to recognize simplicity and decent gameplay at its basic level. I know what everyone finds fun -- but there's no way to know if Nintendo is capable of attracting and engaging people who don't currently play games enough to motivate them to each purchase a Wii themselves. I have no doubt that Wiis will fly off shelves this year, but most will be snatched up by hardcore fans, such as me, and probably you. The coming year will be the true test.

So yeah, I'm cautious. Nervous even. Yet, to write this, I have resisted an odd, but constant urge to praise the system and hail its upcoming success. There is a lot to love about the Wii and I'm confident that it'll be money well spent. I'm not worried about that. What I am hoping is that this time around I won't be the only person I know who owns one. For once I'd like it if the rest of the world knows how fun my console is. I'm tired of playing alone.